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A correction algorithm of summer precipitation prediction based on neural network in China
LI Tao, CHEN Jie, WANG Fang, HAN Rui
Journal of Arid Meteorology    2022, 40 (2): 308-316.   DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2022)-02-0308
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The prediction based on dynamic downscaling prediction technology of the climate extension of weather research and forecasting (CWRF) model to summer precipitation has a certain deviation, so it is difficult to achieve accurate prediction. This paper analyzed the correlated meteorological elements with summer precipitation based on the climatic characteristics of summer precipitation in the main land of China. And on this basis, the reforecasts of summer precipitation by CWRF model in China during 1996-2019 were corrected by using the combined method of dendritic network (DD) and artificial neural network (ANN). Finally, the correction effect was tested by mean square error (MSE), anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) and temporal correlation coefficient (TCC), etc. The results show that the correction effect to summer precipitation based on the artificial dendritic neural network (ADNN) algorithm model was better than the historical reforecasts of CWRF model in China. The ACC and TCC both increased by about 0.10, MSE dropped by about 26%, and the overall trend anomaly test scores improved by 6.55, which indicated that the ADNN machine learning method could achieve correction to summer precipitation forecasts of CWRF model to a certain extent, thus it could improve the accuracy of precipitation forecasts of CWRF model.

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